Showing posts with label accuracy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label accuracy. Show all posts

Sunday, 24 January 2010

"Dear Astrology, from Science" (No. 3)

The sudden enthusiasm for what was just a passing idea has led to me churning out more of this bilge, in a series I'm calling The Science Letters, for obvious reasons. First two are here and here, the latest are here.

And on we go...

"Dear Astrology

Hello. It's me, Science. Remember me? We used to work together a lot in the old days, before I went solo? Good times usually, but I'll be honest, it's not something I bring up on my CV these days. I know we haven't really spoken in a while, are you still sore about two of your guys getting executed over the eclipse business? Like I told you at the time, if they'd spent more time listening to me instead of wallowing in the opium dens, they would have seen it coming.
And before you kick off, no, I don't cause eclipses, I just know what they are and when they're coming, me and Maths worked it out long ago. You want to talk to the cause, have a word with my boy Physics. Good luck with that though, he's thoroughly set in his ways. 'You Can'nae change him', as the great man used to say.
(Yes, I'm a Start Trek fan, why does this surprise you?)
How are you anyway? Not been seeing you around much lately. It wasn't too long ago that you and Media were best mates, you were always together. I guess you didn't confuse him like I do, despite your insane claims. But now he's ditched you in favour of psychics and health gurus. He's fickle is media, it's all about image with him. No doubt he'll also throw those hacks to the curb soon, in favour of Chicken-juggling rain makers or people who predict the future by 'reading' the patterns in spilled muesli, or whatever crowd-pleasing gibberish is 'in'. Whore.
Anyway, Astronomy asked me to write to you, largely because people keep getting him and you mixed up. I can see his problem, apart from the similar names and obsession with all things spatial; you guys have nothing in common. Oh, and stereotypically you are both advocated by socially awkward people with weird hair in long coats who speak in bizarre ways. Astronomy insists that that's not how he is any more, any comments on this yourself?
Thing is, I hesitate to have a go at you. We've worked together in the past quite well, and unlike most other pseudosciences you don't seem to have this desire to relentlessly attack me and my lot for having the gall to prefer evidence over wishful thinking. So cheers for that.
So, if you could somehow make it clear that you and astronomy aren't working together, that would be cool. He wants to know how things in Space work; you want people to think that things in space effect how we work. Can't say I agree with that, but then if there are people out there who feel they need the arrangement of celestial bodies to govern how they live their lives then I guess they need all the help they can get, so fair enough.
Of course, this could be a simple oversight. Perhaps you know something I don't, and your predictions are 100% accurate, but your proponents have not taken into account the light-speed factor. The stars we see in the night sky, their light is actually from anywhere between dozens to hundreds of thousands of years in the past. Maybe your predictions are completely true, but for people in the 3rd century? You might want to hook up with History and Archaeology, see if there's something you can work out regarding this.
My main issue is that I've heard people describe Astrology as 'a Science'. And we both know you're not. You don't pay the union dues for a start, but that's by-the-by. Did you ever think about becoming a Science for real? It won't be easy, but should it be a challenge you wish to take up, there are several things you need to do.
Firstly, you need a rational basis for your theories. You contend that the arrangement of bodies in space directly affects what happens in the lives of individual people. Why would this be the case, and by what mechanism could this occur? In actual fact, the equations governing gravity and its effects do suggest that all matter in the universe affects other matter, regardless of distance, so there's something you may want to look into. (Not that this really supports your claims, seeing as a Walnut in a village in Brazil has more noticeable influence over a Mongolian goat herder than stars light years away have over individual people, but it's something to think about).
Secondly, you need to be more specific. 12 star signs limit you to 1 prediction per 500 million people, at least. Yeah, going by those odds, your predictions will be accurate for some people, but you'll be wrong a lot more than you'll be right. Granted, you could select a few of the 'accurate' examples, ignore the rest and say you were right. But why stop there, why not just start selling people water to cure their illness and argue that 2000 years of medicine are wrong?
There's no need to be so limiting these days. You've got the planets to work with, sure, but Astronomy has discovered at least 424 extrasolar planets now, with more coming in all the time. I'm sure he'll let you borrow some. You know what 'happens' when Mars is in Sagittarius, or Venus is occupying Aries, but what about when PSR B1620-26 is passing Capricorn? Or SWEEPS J175853.92-291129.6 is waxing in Pisces? The names aren't as catchy I'll admit, but a couple of nicknames won't hurt. Spread the net wider, play around with it a bit.
Speaking of which, I hope it didn't throw things off too much when I demoted Pluto. I was sorry to see the little guy go too, but there are bigger rocks than him out there and I can't start focusing on the ones I like. Remember what I said about cherry picking the data? Bad boy, naughty now!
This is assuming it did affect you, of course. But if it didn't, that raises interesting questions. Exactly how big does a celestial body need to be in order to 'influence' us? If Pluto can do it, why not the billions of other rocks and comets (in this system alone)? Or do they affect the non-human 'lower' creatures? Another lucrative market, perhaps? Horoscopes for animals.

"Virgo: On Sunday, you will face challenges in the form of next doors cat, which will again attempt to encroach on your territory. An irritable Cancer, a bad sign for romance with Virgos, will reject your advances when you try to hump his leg. Avoid chicken bones as these will lead to bowel upsets. Be wary of worms"



There you go, easy. The point is, the more data you have, the more accurate the predictions you could make (and before you think to argue this, don't bring up Meteorology, he does his best, and you try to make better predictions of a system which is the embodiment of chaos!). The more accurate the predictions, the more credible you could be. I'll admit that accurate Horoscopes would be quite unnerving for people; I tried them out myself a few times. But still, credibility or crowd pleasing? The choice is yours. And if you were more accurate, I'm sure Astronomy wouldn't mind being mistaken for you so much.


Fond regards

Science (BA hons)

P.S. Please spare me the jokes about how 'you knew this was coming'. If I'd got the reply before I sent this, then I'd believe you.


Email: Humourology (at) live.co.uk
Twitter: @garwboy

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Friday, 8 August 2008

Horoscopes!

A lot of people believe in horoscopes. They shouldn't, but they do. As has been demosntrated several times in the past, Horoscopes are just a lot of vague generalisations that, by sheer law of averages, will prove accurate for some people. But there you go, they're generally harmless enough, I don't agree with astologers raking in money from gullible people, but then they don't offer to cure illnesses like so many other charlatans, so leave them be.

But a lot of cynical people do rant about how stupid they are. But would you want some complete stranger knowing the details of your life? Would you be happy, knowing that via some paranormal system your entire existence is one long 'Big Brother' series? Imagine if horoscopes were real, wouldn't that be worse.

As part of a potential spoof newsletter a friend of mine is putting together, I wrote my own horoscope, without the generalisation. Statistically, it'll still apply to some people.

MYSTIC TED’S ‘NO NONSENSE’ HOROSCOPE

“Worryingly Precise” (South Wales Gazette)

  • ARIES: When you go to Tescos on Tuesday for a few essential groceries, they will cost £12.46. But after you leave you will remember that you didn’t buy milk, and will have to decide whether to catch the next bus or go back for it. Go get it. Black coffee isn’t so bad, but dry porridge is just oats, and you are not a horse.

  • TAURUS: Friday is your mother’s birthday, but you will still forget even though I’ve just reminded you. Take her a bigger than usual bouquet of flowers for your usual Sunday visit. Say you didn’t want to risk them getting damaged by delivery. She’ll still be a bit suspicious, so buy her a bottle of her favourite Brandy as well. It’s the one with the green label in the fat round bottle and smells of lighter fluid. Don’t bother with the expensive stuff, she’ll just knock it back after you leave either way.

  • GEMINI: On Saturday, you will go to a pub quiz. The answers you won’t know are as follows. 3 - Al Pacino in Scarface. 8 - The Warsaw Pact. 17 - Buzz Aldrin. 22 – Streets of Philadelphia (not just Philadelphia, Streets of Philadelphia, people always forget that). 30 – Paul Ince. 39 – Monte Video. You’ll come second, beaten by that team of teenage kids, all of whom are friends of that one who looks a lot like the landlord.

  • CANCER: That phone number you were looking for, for the guy who said he could fix your shower for cheap? It’s in the inside pocket of your suit jacket. You hung it up in the spare room cupboard.

  • LEO: That itch you keep getting? It is what you think it is, go get yourself checked. And if you stopped picking up women in that pit of a club at 3am this wouldn’t happen, would it!

  • VIRGO: LOOK OUT! Gah! Why don’t you listen? Take more care when you’re out and about. What idiot adjusts their iPod settings when taking a short cut through a building site?

  • LIBRA: That promotion you’re hoping for will go to Brian, the suck up. But don’t worry, in 3 months they’ll find ‘dodgy’ files on his office PC and sack him, and you’ll take over. Don’t get smug though, it’s a hard job and don’t forget you’re a lazy git.

  • SCORPIO: When choosing your holiday on Thursday, avoid the Dominican Republic. It’s a nice place, but the hotel you’ll end up in has been lying about its hygiene certificates, and you’ll get food poisoning. £600 to spend 5 days on the bog? No thanks.

  • SAGGITARIUS: When driving to work tomorrow, let that guy in the black Mercedes pull out. I know he seems like a smug yuppy who’s had enough good luck in life already, but he works at the bank you’ll be trying to get a loan from later in the day, and he’ll recognise you and help you get approved. You’ll still blow it all on that business venture though; nobody wants ‘Police Academy’ memorabilia.

  • CAPRICORN: In the pub on Friday, don’t eat any of the peanuts or you’ll die. Yes, you are allergic. No, I know you haven’t been before, but sometimes it develops later in life. No, I don’t know why, I’m not a doctor. Fine, don’t believe me, eat some and find out for yourself. Hah! Don’t want to risk it? Thought not.

  • AQUARIES: Despite all your efforts, everyone knows that you’ve been secretly sleeping with the woman who works in the cafĂ© across the road. Although everyone, including myself, would like to know why. She must be 20 years older than you. Is that what you’re into?

  • PISCES: Your husband is cheating on you with his boss’ secretary. Because you haven’t slept together in 4 years, and all you do is moan about housework and people you don’t like. Just cut the whingeing, show him some affection and it’ll be fine. Yes, my wife is a Pisces, what are you implying? How can you say I look guilty? You can’t even see me. Can you?...

Please let me know if these come true for any of you.

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